Ten years after the UK stumbled into a hurried referendum that polarised the country and caused chaos, a caution emerges from beyond the Irish Sea: it could happen again.
The government and voters sleepwalked into Brexit and the same might transpire with a referendum on a united Ireland, triggering convulsions for which no one is ready.
That represents the warning from two prominent commentators from each side of the Irish border who have teamed up to analyse the advantages and disadvantages of Northern Ireland leaving the UK to create a fresh nation with the Republic of Ireland.
Political Establishments Ill-Equipped
The author and columnist and The Northern Ireland editor, have determined that the government bodies in Ireland and Britain are extremely unready for a possibly contentious and seismic public vote.
"The crucial insight of Brexit has gone unabsorbed, which is that events can emerge unexpectedly and can gain traction swiftly," O’Toole stated. "It is my view that the institutional structure of our islands remains extremely volatile."
Released Volume Seeks to Provoke Discussion
The pair have analysed the political, financial and societal arguments for any governmental shift in a publication, Examining Irish Unification, released by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They hope to encourage dialogue on the matter with a tour of public talks that will lead them to Westminster soon.
"What haunts everyone, or must worry all involved, is the Brexit vote of 2016," commented the analyst.
"We must avoid a referendum on a binary, vague proposition whose results have not been clarified because then you end up with an extraordinarily divided society where those defeated are unable to accept defeat and the victorious side are uncertain precisely what it is that they have gained."
Constitutional Provision
Under the Good Friday agreement, the Northern Ireland official should call a public vote on Irish unification if it appears likely that a majority would support.
Sinn Féin and other nationalists argue that moment is approaching, and a organisation called pro-unification advocates has rallied support, but both governments and unionists minimise the likelihood, making it uncertain if and when there might be a national vote.
Insufficient Serious Debate
Ideological statements for and against unification has hidden the lack of serious debate, said McBride.
"Many are for or against the idea but the concrete planning which could extend past that to realise it is mostly absent. A lot has taken place in universities but hardly any elected officials or advocates seek to involve themselves with even the basics. For instance, what sort of state would you want? Centralised? Decentralised?"
Book's Approach
In the book, neither author advocates unity or the existing arrangement. Each composes two articles that strive for impartiality in laying out the rationale for a unified Ireland and the rationale opposing it, assembling financial and societal statistics, previous instances and governmental frameworks.
Debates cover national emblems, duties, medical care, elderly benefits, sovereign debt obligations and the danger of pro-UK militancy. The goal is to enlighten and stimulate conversation.
"There's huge interest in the subject but there is still lacking a discussion," commented O’Toole. "Debate suggests an recognition of the concept that there may exist valid points on each side."
Simultaneous Plebiscites
A referendum in Northern Ireland would additionally cause one in the Republic of Ireland, where the electorate report they favour unity but oppose paying higher taxes or implementing a new flag to reflect pro-UK communities' UK heritage.
"Authorities in Dublin must work out what the proposal from nationalist groups is other than just declaring: 'We desire a unified Ireland and we love you'," stated O’Toole.
Probability of Referendum
The journalist thinks a national vote in his era is probable and that it could happen unexpectedly. "You could have just a reckless or a bad or a negligent official who says: 'We should proceed and get it out of the way.'"
Each of the nationalists and pro-UK supporters have plausible, valid perspectives, he commented. "Somebody will win in this matter and the other side will in the end be defeated but each side has got valuable insights to learn from the alternative arguments."
Request for Wider Dialogue
Westminster should join the dialogue, said O’Toole. "This involves your state. It's a UK matter just as much as it is an Irish matter."
